Real Estate Division

CPD 112 - Real Estate Consulting: Forecasting

Pre-requisite: Recommend CPD 110 & 111; statistics background would be helpful.

These four lessons build on CPD 110 and CPD 111 in developing the real estate professional's capabilities for offering high-level advisory services.  Students will explore forecasting methods for use in a real estate decision-making environment, with an emphasis on critical analysis of forecasts done by others.  The course focuses primarily on computer-based statistical forecasting tools -- use of statistical software (sold separately) is highly recommended.

Course Outline

Foreword: Introduction to Professional Development Courses

Lesson 1: Introduction to Statistical and Judgment Forecasting in Real Estate

  • Why Do We Need Forecasting in Real Estate Decision Making?
  • Who Needs Forecasts?
  • How Does Forecasting "Work"?
  • Forecasting Techniques 
  • Managing the Forecasting Process
  • Summary

Lesson 2: Understanding Data Patterns and Forecasting Techniques

  • Statistical Software — SPSS
  • Lesson Plan
  • Statistical Data Characteristics
  • Statistical Forecasting Using Time Series Data
  • How to forecast using averaging and patterns
  • Summary: Forecasting Using Averaging and Patterns
  • Appendix 1: How to Deal with Non-Constant Variance
  • Appendix 2: Exponential Smoothing Example
  • Appendix 3: ARIMA Example

Lesson 3: Forecasting Model Application and Results Evaluation

  • Introducing Multivariate Analysis
  • Data Analysis and Forecasting Using MRA
  • Appendix 1: Four Important Properties of Regression Residuals
  • Appendix 2: Cochrane-Orcutt method for Removing Autocorrelation in a Regression
  • Appendix 3: Further Issues in Regression Analysis

Lesson 4: Demographic Forecasting and Psychographic Analysis

  • Boom, Bust & Echo
  • Why Demographics/Psychographics?
  • Need for Demographic Analysis and Forecasts
  • Need for Demographic and Psychographic Analysis in Real Estate
  • Demographic Basics
  • Demographic Forecasting Steps
  • Creating a Simple Demographic Forecast — Model Building Example
  • Sources of Demographic Forecasts
  • Sources of Psychographic Data
  • Using Demographics and Psychographics in Real Estate Forecasting
  • Demographics in Context: Avoiding Pitfalls
  • Market Research and Demographic/Psychographic Analysis
  • Summary

Afterword

  • The Final Examination

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