Pre-requisite: Recommend CPD 110 & 111; statistics background would be helpful.
These four lessons build on CPD 110 and CPD 111 in developing the real estate professional's capabilities for offering high-level advisory services. Students will explore forecasting methods for use in a real estate decision-making environment, with an emphasis on critical analysis of forecasts done by others. The course focuses primarily on computer-based statistical forecasting tools -- use of statistical software (sold separately) is highly recommended.
Foreword: Introduction to Professional Development Courses
Lesson 1: Introduction to Statistical and Judgment Forecasting in Real Estate
- Why Do We Need Forecasting in Real Estate Decision Making?
- Who Needs Forecasts?
- How Does Forecasting "Work"?
- Forecasting Techniques
- Managing the Forecasting Process
Lesson 2: Understanding Data Patterns and Forecasting Techniques
- Statistical Software — SPSS
- Lesson Plan
- Statistical Data Characteristics
- Statistical Forecasting Using Time Series Data
- How to forecast using averaging and patterns
- Summary: Forecasting Using Averaging and Patterns
- Appendix 1: How to Deal with Non-Constant Variance
- Appendix 2: Exponential Smoothing Example
- Appendix 3: ARIMA Example
Lesson 3: Forecasting Model Application and Results Evaluation
- Introducing Multivariate Analysis
- Data Analysis and Forecasting Using MRA
- Appendix 1: Four Important Properties of Regression Residuals
- Appendix 2: Cochrane-Orcutt method for Removing Autocorrelation in a Regression
- Appendix 3: Further Issues in Regression Analysis
Lesson 4: Demographic Forecasting and Psychographic Analysis
- Boom, Bust & Echo
- Why Demographics/Psychographics?
- Need for Demographic Analysis and Forecasts
- Need for Demographic and Psychographic Analysis in Real Estate
- Demographic Basics
- Demographic Forecasting Steps
- Creating a Simple Demographic Forecast — Model Building Example
- Sources of Demographic Forecasts
- Sources of Psychographic Data
- Using Demographics and Psychographics in Real Estate Forecasting
- Demographics in Context: Avoiding Pitfalls
- Market Research and Demographic/Psychographic Analysis
- The Final Examination